Election Watch #74: SC Legislative Special Election
There is only one contested election today in a deep red part of South Carolina.
The end of the year is always a laid-back time for elections, and 2025 is no exception. We only have one contested special election today in South Carolina, so let’s dive in and take a look.
Last Week’s Results
In Georgia Senate District 35, Democrat Jaha Howard defeated fellow Democrat and former state representative Roger Bruce by a narrow 52-48 margin. Howard had positioned himself as a young change candidate focused on affordability, while Bruce had leaned on his experience as a seasoned state legislator with institutional connections across the district. Georgia Republicans now hold a slightly reduced 32-23 majority in the Georgia Senate.
In Kentucky Senate District 37, Democrat Gary Clemons defeated Republican Calvin Leach by a 73-25 margin. This was a massive over performance of 42 points - Kamala Harris carried this seat in Louisville’s southern neighborhoods just 52-46. Republicans now hold a slightly reduced 32-6 supermajority in the Kentucky Senate.
State Legislative Special Elections
South Carolina House 88
District Description: A Lexington County Midlands seat covering areas including Lexington, South Congaree, Pine Ridge, and Gaston.
2024 Result: Trump+35
2020 Result: Trump+34
Reason for Vacancy: Rep. RJ May (R) resigned in August and later pled guilty to five counts of distributing child pornography.
Analysis: Republicans nominated John Lastinger, a pastor, after he won a GOP primary runoff; he will face Democrat J. Chuck Hightower, a U.S. Army veteran. Lastinger’s message is explicitly faith-forward - he has said that his candidacy is driven by faith and talked about a “one nation under God” vision - while Hightower’s profile has leaned on his military service. The biggest story shaping the environment is the RJ May scandal itself, which has drawn outsized attention to the race. South Carolina has only held one contested special election this year, and the Democrat in that race over performed by 36 points. Additionally, this seat only moved 1 point to the right in 2024, while South Carolina as a whole moved 6 points rightward. Still, even if this district may be primed to move to the left, and even if an upset is theoretically possible, the area is still very red, and Lastinger remains the safe favorite to hold it for the GOP, even if his margin of victory will likely be less than 35 points.
Forecast: Safe Republican Hold
There are also special elections for South Carolina Senate District 12 and South Carolina House District 21, but Republicans Lee Bright and Dianne Mitchell are unopposed, respectively. As a result, Republicans are guaranteed to pad their current 33-12 supermajority in the state Senate and their 86-36 supermajority in the state House. Republicans also control the governorship, and will comfortably retain control of lawmaking power regardless of the result in House District 88.
That’s all for today! We have one more election before 2026. See you then!
Upcoming Elections
December 30: State legislative special election in Iowa
January 6: State legislative special elections in Connecticut and South Carolina
January 13: State legislative special elections in Alabama and Connecticut
January 20: State legislative special election in Georgia