Election Watch #25: Election Day Countdown - Days 14 to 8

Today's installment is the penultimate in Election Watch's countdown to Election Day, going over the states which will be key to deciding Congressional majorities and the next President.

Heads up: this post is too long for email, so if you want to read the entire thing, you’ll have to follow the link to its Substack page. Otherwise, I hope you enjoy!

The 7 states covered in today’s installment of Election Watch (light green) and the states already covered (dark green).

We are officially only two weeks out from the 2024 general election. This countdown has officially entered truly “competitive” state territory, and many of the races we cover now will be instrumental to deciding the next President of the United States, which party controls majorities in Congress, and much more.

So without further ado, here are states 14-8 in the countdown. Recall that all 50 states and Washington, D.C. have been ordered from least to most competitive this year.

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Nebraska Addendum

I realized after last week’s installment that I forgot to include a section on Nebraska’s “Other” elections this year! So, here it is:

Others: Voters in Nebraska will also be electing 4 of the 8 seats on the Nebraska State Board of Regents, 4 of the 8 seats on the Nebraska State Board of Education, and 2 of the 5 seats on the Nebraska Public Service Commission. All seats in the Nebraska legislature are also up for election. Nebraska is unique among U.S. states in that it has a unicameral legislature - there is only one chamber, the state Senate. All of its members are also elected in nonpartisan elections (though you can still pretty easily tell which party each candidate identifies with). This year, Republican-leaning candidates are safely favored to keep their majority in the state Senate, and have a 50/50 shot at gaining a supermajority (this matters in Nebraska, where the legislature effectively has a filibuster rule requiring bills to win 2/3rds support to pass). One justice of the Nebraska Supreme Court is also up in a retention election. She was appointed by a Republican governor. 6 justices on the court were appointed by Republican governors, and 1 by a Democratic governor. There are also six statewide ballot measures in Nebraska this year: one to require employers to provide earned paid sick leave for employees; one to legalize the medical use of marijuana in the state; one to establish the Nebraska Medical Cannabis Commission to regulate the state's medical marijuana program; one to partially repeal Legislative Bill 1402, which authorized the state treasurer to administer an education scholarship program with a $10 million budget beginning in fiscal year 2024-2025; and two related to abortion. Nebraska is the only state this year where voters will face two competing ballot measures on abortion - one would prohibit abortion after the first trimester, except in cases of medical emergencies or if the pregnancy is the result of sexual assault or incest; and the other would provide for a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability. If both measures pass, whichever one receives more votes will take effect.

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Day 14: Georgia

A vote density map of the 2020 election in Georgia.

Georgia’s 14 congressional districts, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

President: Georgia has emerged as a very competitive state in recent years. After President Joe Biden won the state by less than 13,000 votes (0.2 points) in 2020, Democrats subsequently won two statewide Senate runoffs and another Senate election in 2022. Democratic growth in the state has been turbocharged by the rapidly expanding Atlanta suburbs, which grow bluer and bluer each passing year (Trump won this state by 5 points in 2016). This year, potential continued Democratic growth in Atlanta’s suburbs may be offset by both increasing Republican margins in rural areas of the state and rightward shifts among Black voters both in Atlanta proper and throughout the rest of the state. Polls have been close, but typically give Trump a very slight edge. As such, he is currently very slightly favored to win the Peach State’s 16 electoral votes, but this race realistically has a chance to go either way.

House: Georgia has 14 seats in the U.S. House, but a gerrymandered map means there’s not much competition among them this year. The state legislature redrew the state’s congressional map after the 2022 map was struck down as a racial gerrymander, but was still able to draw the lines to favor Republicans. Incumbents are safely favored to win re-election in all districts, with Republican Brian Jack the safe favorite to win the open seat in District 3. Really the only thing to keep an eye on will be how quickly the safely red districts outside of Atlanta (Districts 7 and 11, mainly) move leftward this year.

Others: Georgians will be electing 2 of the 5 seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission. The entire state legislature is also up for election. Legislators were ordered to redraw both the state House and state Senate maps after a court found that the 2022 maps were racially gerrymandered, and while Democrats are favored to pick up seats in both chambers, Republicans remain safely favored to retain their majorities in both. The legislature also referred three questions to the ballot this year: one to provide for a local option homestead property tax exemption; one to create the Georgia Tax Court with statewide jurisdiction; and one to increase the personal property tax exemption.

President: Tilts Trump (16 EVs)

House: Safe Republican Hold (Districts 1, 3, 7-12, 14); Safe Democratic Hold (Districts 2, 4-6, 13)

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Day 13: Texas

A vote density map of the 2020 election in Texas.

Texas’s 38 congressional districts, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

A zoomed-in look at the congressional districts in the Texas Triangle, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

President: Texas has long been a Republican stronghold. However, as the second-largest state in the nation, it is home to a massive wealth of both Democratic and Republican votes. Additionally, while much of the state’s geographic area is very rural, most of Texans live in its huge cities and their suburbs. Those suburbs have zoomed leftward over the last decade - while Mitt Romney won the Lone Star state by 16 points in 2012, Trump only won by 9 points in 2016 and 6 points in 2020. While the suburbs pose an issue to Republicans, they do see some welcome shifts here as well - notably, Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley shifted rightward by massive margins in 2020 (South Texas shifted 25 points towards Trump), and Black voters have also shifted slightly rightward in Houston and Dallas. While blue shifts in the suburbs have outweighed these rightward shifts, the move towards Democrats has been blunted. Texas has a whopping 40 electoral votes, and while Democrats have been hoping to flip it for many years now, Trump remains likely to win the Lone Star State by a relatively similar margin to 2016 and 2020.

Senate: Republican Senator Ted Cruz is running for a third term in the U.S. Senate. Cruz is a very conservative and controversial Senator, and Democrats made a serious play to unseat him in the 2018 blue wave, when Representative Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of defeating him. But Cruz survived, and appears likely to win another term this year. His opponent, Democrat Colin Allred, has raised many millions of dollars for his campaign, and Democrats have started to invest in the state as a potential offensive option on an otherwise bleak Senate map for them, but Cruz still has more funds and support. Polls show Cruz running behind Trump, but as of today, Allred has led in just one poll from early September. Cruz remains likely to win.

House: Texas has by far the most gerrymandered congressional map in the country. Districts were drawn by the Republican legislature to pack as many Democrats as possible into a handful of seats and then carve away any remaining Democratic votes and combine them with deep red rural areas to create several dozen safely Republican seats. Only 3 seats - all in the quickly rightward-trending Rio Grande Valley - are competitive this year.

In Trump+3 District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz is running against Democrat Michelle Vallejo in a rematch of their 2022 showdown, which De La Cruz won by 8 points. While the district is close on the presidential level, a massive fundraising advantage for De La Cruz and expected Republican gains among Hispanic voters (this seat shifted 17 points rightward between 2016 and 2020) make her likely to win re-election.

In District 28, which went for Clinton by 20 points before only backing Biden by 7, Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar is seeking re-election. Cuellar was recently indicted on federal money laundering, bribery, and conspiracy charges, but remains intensely popular among his constituency here (he over performed Biden’s margin by 15 points in 2020) and has a large cash advantage, so he remains likely to win.

And in District 34 (Clinton+37, Biden+15), Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is seeking a fifth term against Republican Mayra Flores, who briefly represented the seat after a special election in 2022. Flores has actually raised twice as much money as Gonzalez in this race, and polls have it within the (admittedly large) margin of error. Flores should over perform Trump’s numbers in this district, but it’s very unclear whether this area will see a rightward shift as large as it did in 2020. For now, Gonzalez is slightly favored to win re-election, but it could be very close.

There is also a concurrent special election to fill the vacancy in Texas’s deep blue 18th district, which became vacant when congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee died earlier this year. Democrat Sylvester Turner is safely favored to win both the special and regular elections for this seat.

All other Democratic and Republican incumbents are safe favorites to win re-election. Republicans Craig Goldman and Brandon Gill and Democrat Julie Johnson are safely favored to win open races in Districts 12, 26, and 32, respectively.

Others: Texans will also be electing their Railroad Commissioner and 7 of the 15 seats on the Texas State Board of Education. The state House and half of the state Senate are up for election as well, with Republicans safely favored to keep their Senate majority and very likely to keep their House majority. 3 Texas Supreme Court justices and 3 Texas Court of Criminal Appeals justices are up for election (the Supreme Court handles civil cases and the Criminal Appeals court handles criminal cases). All 18 justices across both courts are Republicans.

President: Likely Trump (40 EVs)

Senate: Likely Republican Hold

House: Unopposed Republican Hold (District 11, 13, 25); Unopposed Democratic Hold (Districts 9, 20, 30); Safe Republican Hold (Districts 1-6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 17, 19, 21-24, 26, 27, 31, 36, 38); Safe Democratic Hold (Districts 7, 16, 18, 29, 30, 32, 33, 35, 37); Likely Republican Hold (District 15); Likely Democratic Hold (District 28); Leans Democratic Hold (District 34)

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Day 12: Florida

A vote density map of the 2020 election in Florida.

Florida’s 28 congressional districts, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

A zoomed-in look at the congressional districts in South Florida, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

President: In 2000, Florida decided the entire presidential election by just 537 votes. The days of being the nation’s premier swing state, however, seem to have passed for the Sunshine State. While Florida was extremely close in the 2008 and 2012 elections, and Trump won by just over 1 point in 2016, the state shifted rightward in 2020, backing Trump by 3 points even as the country as a whole moved left. While Biden improved on Clinton’s numbers among White voters in Florida, the floor fell out from under him among Hispanic voters (especially Cuban voters), who swung hard towards Trump, especially in and around Miami (Miami-Dade County shifted 23 points to the right). It’s an open question whether Vice President Harris will be able to improve on Biden’s numbers among these voters this year - some polls have shown Trump winning the state by just a few points, while others have had him ahead by as much as 13 points. Regardless of the final margin, Trump is at the very least likely to win Florida’s 30 electoral votes this year, but its future status as a solidly red state will be determined by his winning margin.

Senate: Republican Senator Rick Scott is running for a second term this year, and faces a pretty strong challenge from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Scott is very conservative, and not an incredibly popular incumbent - he has a history of under performing other Republican candidates and winning statewide races by very narrow margins. Polls show him running behind Trump, but he still typically leads Mucarsel-Powell by 3-5 points or so. Murcarsel-Powell has raised a lot of money (actually more than Scott if you take out the contributions he made to himself), but winning Florida remains a tall order for Democrats right now, and not much outside spending has yet come to her aid. For now, Scott remains likely to win re-election.

House: While it may not look like it at first glance, Florida’s map is heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans, giving them 20 of the state’s 28 seats in the U.S. House. While this makes most of the seats flat-out uncompetitive, there are still 6 that at least sit on the edge of competition this year.

In Districts 7, 15, 27, and 28, Republican incumbents Cory Mills, Laurel Lee, María Salazar, and Carlos Giménez represent districts that all went for Trump by varying degrees (6 points, 3 points, 0.4 points, and 6 points, respectively). While those aren’t insurmountable margins, the first three hold commanding financial leads over their Democratic opponents, and the latter two represent majority-Hispanic districts south of Miami that have been flying rightwards in recent years. Districts 7 and 15 have slowly been moving left recently, but Mills is very likely to win re-election and Lee is likely to win. In District 27, Salazar is likely to win re-election (she tends to run on par with other Republicans, so she should be set so long as Trump wins this district again). And in District 28, Giménez is on very favorable turf for Republicans but faces a Democratic opponent who has raised more money than him. Still, this district is so favorable for Giménez that he remains very likely to win.

And lastly, Republican Anna Paulina Luna is seeking a second term in Trump+7 but leftward-trending District 13. Luna is extremely conservative and fairly controversial - she under performed other Republicans by a large amount in the 2022 midterms. Democrat Whitney Fox is putting up a serious fight this year, and actually led in a survey back in August. Still, Luna has a cash and incumbency advantage and should win so long as Trump carries this district by a few points. She is slightly favored to hold onto her seat.

All other incumbents are safely favored to win re-election, with Republican Mike Haridopolos safely favored to win the open race in District 8.

Others: Two Florida Supreme Court justices are up in retention elections. All 7 justices on the Court were appointed by Republican governors, and no justice has ever lost a retention election in Florida history. The state House and half of the state Senate are also up for election, with Republicans safely favored to retain their Senate supermajority and very likely to keep their House majority (though Democrats seem poised to pick up enough seats to break their House supermajority). Floridians also have 6 referenda on their ballots this year: one to make school board elections partisan; one to establish a state constitutional right to hunt and fish; one to legalize recreational marijuana; one to provide for an inflation adjustment for the homestead property tax exemption; one to repeal a constitutional provision providing for public campaign financing for statewide candidates; and one very closely-watched referendum to provide for a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability. Ballot measures in Florida must receive 60% of the vote to pass.

President: Likely Trump (30 EVs)

Senate: Likely Republican Hold

House: Unopposed Democratic Hold (District 20); Safe Republican Hold (Districts 1-6, 8, 11, 12, 16-19, 21, 26); Safe Democratic Hold (Districts 9, 10, 14, 22-25); Very Likely Republican Hold (District 28); Likely Republican Hold (Districts 7, 15, 27); Leans Republican Hold (District 13)

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Day 11: Ohio

A vote density map of the 2020 election in Ohio.

Ohio’s 15 congressional districts, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

President: In the early 2000s, Ohio was considered a major swing state. Democrats’ large margins in its cities, pitted against Republicans’ large margins in their suburbs and some rural areas, made elections very close and turned it into a prized state for all presidential campaigns. To this day, no Republican in history has won the presidency without Ohio. In 2016, however, Trump’s unique brand of populist conservatism took the state by storm, supercharging Republican margins in its rural and Appalachian regions, even as Democrats rapidly gained ground in the suburbs. The result was an 8-point Trump win in 2016, which he replicated again in 2020, even as the nation as a whole shifted leftward. Polls show the same thing happening this year - Trump leads by a roughly 8-point average, though some polls have been closer. But assuming that modern trends continue, and that Harris will not massively improve in rural areas (which appears unlikely), Trump is likely to win the Buckeye State and its 17 electoral votes.

Senate: While Ohio isn’t expected to be too competitive on the presidential level, its Senate race is another matter entirely. Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is running for a fourth term against Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Brown is no stranger to winning competitive elections and outrunning Democratic margins at the top of the ballot. But as hyper-partisanship sets in and split ticket voting becomes rarer, he has become a top Republican target. Tens of millions of dollars are being injected into this race by both sides, and while Brown has a massive cash advantage, out performing Kamala Harris’s losing margin by 8 points remains a tall order. Still, Brown continues to lead in most polls (albeit by a slim margin), Moreno is an untested and less moderate candidate, and this race is not yet a true 50/50 toss-up. As of today, Brown remains very slightly favored to win re-election.

House: Ohio’s congressional map is gerrymandered in Republicans’ favor, though Democrats still managed to win 5 of the state’s 15 House seats in 2022. Democrats are playing defense here - only 3 of the state’s seats are competitive this year, and they’re all held by Democrats. Incumbent Greg Landsman represents a Biden+8 district around Cincinnati which is trending leftwards (District 1), and has a significant cash advantage over his opponent. He is very likely to win re-election. Over in Biden+3 District 13, Democrat Emilia Sykes faces a tough re-election bid but has a 4-to-1 cash advantage and is slightly favored to win in a district that isn’t trending leftward or rightward. And in District 9, Democrat Marcy Kaptur is seeking her 21st term in Congress (she has served since 1983). While she represents a Trump+3 (and rightward-trending) seat, Kaptur has a history of over performing other Democrats and a sizable 3-to-1 cash advantage over her Republican opponent. She is no stranger to winning elections in Republican districts, and she is slightly favored to win that 21st term. All other incumbents are safely favored to win re-election, and Republican David Taylor is the safe favorite in the open District 2 race.

Others: Voters in Ohio will be electing 6 of the 19 seats on the Ohio State Board of Education. The entire state House and half of the state Senate are also up for election, with Republicans safely favored to retain their majorities in both chambers. The GOP is very slightly favored to keep its Senate supermajority, and has a 50/50 shot at keeping its House supermajority. Republicans are also defending their narrow 4-3 majority on the Ohio Supreme Court, with 2 Democratic-held seats and 1 Republican-held seat up for election. Democrats and Republicans each have a serious chance to change the partisan composition of the court this year. There is also one very closely watched ballot initiative in Ohio this year, which would create an independent citizens’ redistricting commission and require it to redraw the state’s gerrymandered congressional and legislative districts ahead of the 2026 elections.

President: Likely Trump (17 EVs)

Senate: Tilts Democratic Hold

House: Safe Republican Hold (Districts 2, 4-8, 10, 12, 14, 15); Safe Democratic Hold (Districts 3, 11); Very Likely Democratic Hold (District 1); Leans Democratic Hold (Districts 9, 13)

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Day 10: Maine

A vote density map of the 2020 election in Maine.

Maine’s 2 congressional districts, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

President: Like Nebraska, Maine also allocates its electoral votes by congressional district. Maine is a very unique state - the vast majority of its population is White, and it is extremely rural and very sparsely populated, yet it’s much friendlier territory for Democrats than most other states with similar demographics. Like with Vermont, this could be due to higher-than-average levels of income and education, especially along the coast. The state as a whole backed Hillary Clinton by just 3 points in 2016, but Biden by 9 points in 2020. Harris has maintained a solid lead statewide in polling averages, and is very likely to win the state as a whole and the 2 electoral votes that come along with it. She is also safely favored to win the 1 electoral vote from the Biden+23 District 1, though Trump is likely to win 1 electoral vote from District 2, which he won by 10 points in 2016 and 6 points in 2020 (limited polling showed a potentially close race here this year, but this very rural district is extremely difficult to poll and Trump remains the likely favorite for now). Overall, Harris should win 3 electoral votes to Trump’s 1 from Vacationland.

Senate: Senator Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, is seeking a third term. King is an established and popular incumbent who has won three-way races against a Republican and Democratic opponent before, and he is in no danger of losing this year. That’s especially true since Maine uses ranked-choice voting, which means that even if King loses some support to Democratic nominee David Costello, Republican Demi Kouzounas will not win unless she wins more than 50% of the vote outright (which is unlikely - King won 54% in the first round of voting in 2018, has a solid cash advantage and a strong polling lead, and will likely be the second pick of anyone who backs Costello or Kouzounas). King is safely favored to win re-election.

House: Maine only has 2 seats in the U.S. House, but one of them has been highly competitive for the past several cycles. While District 2 backed Trump by 6 points in 2020, it has a Democratic incumbent in Jared Golden, who has represented the seat since first unseating a GOP incumbent in 2018. Golden goes to great lengths to be a moderate in this Republican-friendly district, and so far it has worked well for him - he outran Biden’s losing margin by 12 points in 2020. Still, he does face a strong challenge this year from Republican state representative and former NASCAR driver Adam Theriault. Golden still has the advantage of incumbency and funding, but polling has shown a very close race, and an upset is very possible. For now, Golden is only the very slight favorite. The state’s other incumbent, Democrat Chellie Pingree, is safely favored to win re-election in District 1.

Others: The entire Maine legislature is up for election this year, with Democrats likely to retain their House and Senate majorities. Voters will also see 5 questions on the ballot: one to limit the amount of campaign contributions from individuals to political action committees; three to authorize various bonds for development across the state; and one to change the Maine state flag to one with a more historical design.

President: Safe Harris (1 EV from ME-01); Very Likely Harris (2 statewide EVs); Likely Trump (1 EV from ME-02)

Senate: Safe Independent Hold

House: Safe Democratic Hold (District 1); Tilts Democratic Hold (District 2)

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Day 9: Iowa

A vote density map of the 2020 election in Iowa.

Iowa’s 4 congressional districts, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

President: Like Ohio, Iowa was a swing - or even Democratic-leaning - state in the early 2000s. But as a very rural state, it went through a massive political re-alignment in the 2016 election, ultimately backing Trump by 9 points that year. It backed him again by 8 points in 2020, and sits at about the same level as Ohio - likely to go for Trump, but not by an entirely insurmountable margin. Democrats have gained in cities here, especially Des Moines, but Republicans continue to gain in the rest of the state, offsetting those shifts and moving the state rightward as a whole. While some polls have put Iowa at just Trump+3 or +4, he remains likely to win the Hawkeye State and its 6 electoral votes.

House: Iowa has 4 congressional districts which essentially split the state by its four corners. District 4 was Trump+26, and incumbent Republican Randy Feenstra is safely favored to win re-election there. The other 3 seats, though, are all competitive to varying degrees this year. In District 2, Republican Ashley Hinson has a 4-to-1 fundraising lead in a Trump+4 seat and is likely to win re-election. In District 1, though, Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks is facing a much tougher than expected race against Democrat Christina Bohannan, who has actually raised more money in this Trump+3 seat and kept the race very close in polls. Miller-Meeks is no stranger to competitive races - she won her 2020 race by just 6 votes - and this district’s slight red lean still gives her a very narrow advantage. She remains the ver slight favorite here. The Trump+0.5 District 3, however, is a complete toss-up. Des Moines is pulling this seat leftward, and Republican incumbent Zach Nunn faces a very strong challenge from Democrat Lanon Baccam, who has kept close in fundraising and polling. This race is too close to say either candidate has a concrete advantage, and is thus a 50/50 toss-up.

Others: Iowa’s entire state House and half of its state Senate are up for election this year. Republicans are safely favored to retain their Senate majority and very likely to retain their House majority. Democrats have a 50/50 chance to break the Republican supermajority in the Senate, and a supermajority in the House seems out of reach for the GOP. One justice of the Iowa Supreme Court - conservative David May, who voted in favor of upholding the state’s 6 week abortion ban - is up in a retention election. All 7 justices on the court were appointed by Republicans. Two questions will appear before voters on their ballots as well: one to prohibit the state and local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote and allow 17-year-olds who will be 18 by the general election to vote in primary elections; and one to provide that the Lieutenant Governor is first in the line of succession to the Governor.

President: Likely Trump (6 EVs)

House: Safe Republican Hold (District 4); Likely Republican Hold (District 2); Tilts Republican Hold (District 1); Toss-Up (District 3)

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Day 8: North Carolina

A vote density map of the 2020 election in North Carolina.

North Carolina’s 14 congressional districts, shaded by winning margins in the 2020 presidential election.

President: North Carolina is a diverse and rapidly growing state that Democrats have tried to win year after year, usually to no avail. The state is close in margins, but Republicans typically end up with a very slight edge - Trump won the state by 3 points in 2016 and just 1 in 2020, even as Democrats won the Governor’s Mansion both years. Other than in 2008, the Tar Heel State has not voted for a Democrat for President since 1964. Democrats are once again making a play for it this year, however, and polls actually show a very close race - to the point where it is very difficult to say one candidate has an advantage over the other. This is a state whose presidential race is likely to come down to the wire, and for now I can only say it’s a 50/50 toss-up.

Governor: Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is term-limited in North Carolina, and this year’s race to succeed him was initially thought to be quite competitive. Over the past few months in particular, however, Republican nominee Mark Robinson has repeatedly shot himself in the foot as past controversial statements have come back to haunt him. After a particularly damning report from CNN last month, Robinson has completely collapsed in the polls against Democrat Josh Stein, and has even lost the support of many prominent Republicans. While Stein leads by double-digits in most polls, Robinson may still win more votes than they’re showing (this may be a case where Robinson voters are less likely to publicly admit they’re voting for him but do regardless in the privacy of the voting booth). Still, Robinson is a uniquely bad candidate, and Stein is likely to hold the Governor’s Mansion for Democrats.

House: While North Carolina used a fair, court-drawn congressional map for the 2022 midterms, a newly conservative state Supreme Court allowed state legislators to gerrymander the seats for the remainder of the decade, starting this year. While the U.S. House delegation from North Carolina is currently split between 7 Democrats and 7 Republicans, it’s likely that Democrats will lose at least 3 of those seats this year because of the new gerrymander. Those seats - Districts 6, 13, and 14 - are safely favored to flip to Republican control (no Democrat even filed to run in District 6). Only one race on the map is really competitive this year - District 1, a Biden+2 seat which is rapidly moving rightwards. While the seat is very close on the presidential level, incumbent Democrat Don Davis has out performed other Democrats and has a strong financial advantage and a consistent polling lead. He is slightly favored to win re-election. All other incumbents are safely favored to win, with the exception of Republican Chuck Edwards in the Trump+11 District 11. Edwards is an uncontroversial incumbent with a strong financial advantage, but the district is trending leftward and damage from Hurricane Helene could complicate voting and turnout in unexpected ways. For now, though, Edwards is very likely to win. Republicans Addison McDowell, Mark Harris, Pat Harrigan, Brad Knott, and Tim Moore are safely favored to win the open races in Districts 6, 8, 10, 13, and 14, respectively.

Others: North Carolinians will be electing 9 statewide executive offices in addition to Governor: Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Auditor, Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Labor Commissioner, Insurance Commissioner, and Agriculture Commissioner. The entire North Carolina legislature is up for election as well, with Republicans very likely to retain their majorities in both the state House and state Senate (both of which are using newly gerrymandered maps). Republicans currently hold veto-proof majorities in both chambers by just 1 seat, and while they are very narrowly favored to retain that supermajority in the Senate, Democrats have a 50/50 chance of breaking it in the House. One seat on the state Supreme Court is also up for grabs, with Democratic justice Allison Riggs running for re-election. Currently, 2 justices are Democrats and 5 are Republicans. There is also one referendum on the ballot, which would prohibit the state and local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote if approved.

President: Toss-Up (16 EVs)

Governor: Likely Democratic Hold

House: Safe Republican Hold (Districts 3, 5, 7-11); Safe Democratic Hold (Districts 2, 4, 12); Safe Republican Flip (Districts 6, 13, 14); Leans Democratic Hold (District 1)

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Forecast Updates

There are a lot of forecast updates this week. The final campaign finance reports of this cycle have been released, and we have entered the final chaotic stretch of polls. I have made 25 ratings changes this week - 12 in favor of Democrats and 13 in favor of Republicans - to reflect this new information. Without further ado, they are as follows:

MI President: Tilts Harris to Toss-Up: The polls - and momentum - seem to have shifted against Harris this past week. The presidential race in Michigan is now a toss-up. Polls have shown a razor-tight margin between Harris and Trump in the Wolverine State, and the added uncertainty of how Arab and Muslim voters displeased with Biden’s stance on Gaza will vote only adds to the unpredictability in this state.

NV President: Tilts Harris to Toss-Up: Polls have similarly tightened in Nevada, to the point where Harris is no longer a very slight favorite. The race in the Silver State is 50/50.

WI President: Tilts Harris to Toss-Up: Wisconsin follows the pattern of the last two ratings changes - polls have tightened, and the presidential election here is a 50/50 toss-up.

WI Senate: Leans Democratic Hold to Tilts Democratic Hold: Polls have similarly tightened in Wisconsin’s Senate race, where Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin retains an advantage, but has seen it eroding in recent weeks.

AK-AL House: Leans Democratic Hold to Tilts Democratic Hold: Democrat Mary Peltola increasingly seems locked in a very tight race in Alaska. Polls show her Republican opponent ahead, but the added quirk of ranked-choice voting still gives her a very slight edge. This could easily become a toss-up race in next week’s forecast updates, though.

AZ-01 House: Tilts Republican Hold to Toss-Up: Republican David Schweikert no longer has a fundraising advantage here, and polling has shown this to be an extremely close race. Neither candidate has a clear advantage.

AZ-02 House: Safe Republican Hold to Likely Republican Hold: While not initially expected to be competitive, a very strong challenge to Republican Eli Crane by Jonathan Nez, the former President of the Navajo Nation, has pushed this race onto the edge of competition. A recent poll here showed a tied race, but Crane still retains an incumbency and friendly turf advantage in this Trump+8 seat.

CA-49 House: Very Likely Democratic Hold to Likely Democratic Hold: I don’t yet believe that Democrat Mark Levin is in serious danger in southern California, but recent polls (albeit commissioned by Republican pollsters) have shown a pretty tight race here. I’m moving it to the Likely Democratic Hold column out of an abundance of caution.

FL-07 House: Safe Republican Hold to Very Likely Republican Hold: While I initially considered Republican Cory Mills to be the safe favorite to win re-election in FL-07, the fact is that his district is close enough on the presidential level (and trending leftward) to no longer justify keeping him as the safe favorite. For now, he is the very likely favorite.

FL-09 House: Very Likely Democratic Hold to Safe Democratic Hold: While incumbent Democrat Darren Soto is running in a seat that is rapidly shifting rightwards and against a Republican who has raised more funds than him, this is still a Biden+17 district. Add to that the fact that Soto over performs other Democrats by wide margins, and it’s clear that he’s not in serious danger this year.

FL-15 House: Safe Republican Hold to Likely Republican Hold: Like with FL-07, I initially considered Republican Laurel Lee to be the safe favorite in this race, and while she is still likely to win, the district was close enough on the presidential level in 2020 to warrant a very slight shift in this race’s rating.

IA-01 House: Leans Republican Hold to Tilts Republican Hold: A surprisingly strong showing in polls and fundraising from Democrat Christina Bohannan is putting Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks on defense and making this race pretty competitive. Miller-Meeks is still the very slight favorite, but this could end up becoming a key race for control of the House.

ME-02 House: Leans Democratic Hold to Tilts Democratic Hold: This change honestly should have been made a few weeks ago, but Democrat Jared Golden faces an increasingly uphill re-election battle in a red district against a Republican with strong cross-ballot appeal. This may become a toss-up race next week.

NJ-07 House: Toss-Up to Tilts Republican Hold: Republican Tom Kean Jr. is a top target for Democrats this year, but has maintained a fundraising and recent polling lead. That lead remains very slight, though, so while Kean is very slightly favored to win re-election right now, that could easily change again in the next two weeks.

NY-01 House: Likely Republican Hold to Leans Republican Hold: Republican Nick LaLota remains the slight favorite in this race, but his Democratic opponent has raised a lot of cash, and his seemingly large polling lead has come entirely from Republican-leaning pollsters. This rating could shift again either way before election day.

NY-22 House: Tilts Democratic Flip to Toss-Up: While Republicans seemingly triaged this district when they stopped funneling outside spending to defend incumbent Brandon Williams, this has remained a hyper-competitive race, and Williams’s attacks on Democrat John Mannion’s involvement in unpopular policy decisions in the state legislature seem to be resonating with voters. This race is back in the toss-up column.

OH-01 House: Likely Democratic Hold to Very Likely Democratic Hold: Upon further evaluation, the blue lean of this district, its leftward trend, and Democrat Greg Landsman’s strong fundraising all make him very likely to win re-election.

PA-07 House: Tilts Democratic Hold to Leans Democratic Hold: While Democrat Susan Wild had to fight tooth and nail to win re-election in 2022, she appears to be in a stronger position this time around. She has an insanely large fundraising lead and has led in polls by wider margins than she did two years ago. She’s at least slightly favored to win re-election.

TX-03 House: Very Likely Republican Hold to Safe Republican Hold: While I initially flagged this district as being possibly competitive, Trump’s unchanged lead at the top of the ballot in Texas and candidate fundraising in this district make Republican Keith Self the safe favorite to win.

TX-24 House: Very Likely Republican Hold to Safe Republican Hold: This is the same situation as the change in TX-03 - the district is zooming left, but there’s lackluster fundraising for the Democratic candidate, the Republican is at least semi-popular, and Trump’s unchanged lead in Texas statewide makes this district unlikely to flip on the presidential level. Republican Beth Van Duyne is the safe favorite now.

TX-34 House: Likely Democratic Hold to Leans Democratic Hold: This district is looking increasingly competitive. It’s shifting quickly to the right, and Republican Maya Flores leads in fundraising and has over performed other Republicans in the past. Democrat Vicente Gonzalez remains slightly favored, but this is a close race.

VA-07 House: Leans Democratic Hold to Toss-Up: This is again a race rating which should have changed at least a week ago. Democrat Eugene Vindman has a massive fundraising advantage, but has consistently been polling even with or only 1 point ahead of Republican Derrick Anderson. This is a Biden+7 seat that has been trending leftward, but Vindman is clearly unable to capitalize on that for one reason or another. This is a 50/50 toss-up race (for now).

WI-01 House: Safe Republican Hold to Likely Republican Hold: Wisconsin’s 1st district is close on the presidential level - Trump only won it by 2 points in 2020 - but it’s largely stagnant in terms of recent shifts, and Republican Bryan Steil remains popular. Still, some close polls seem to have put renewed Republican focus on this race to protect their incumbent, and it is feasible that Democrats get close or even pull off an upset here. Steil isn’t the safe favorite anymore, though he remains likely to win re-election.

WI-03 House: Likely Republican Hold to Leans Republican Hold: Interesting things are happening in Wisconsin’s 3rd district, where Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden faces an increasingly tough re-election fight. He remains slightly favored to win, but Democrat Rebecca Cooke has raised a good amount of money and has been keeping polls close in recent weeks. This is a Trump+5 seat without a strong leftward or rightward trend, but Van Orden is a somewhat controversial incumbent, and this race could end up being pretty close.

WI-08 House: Safe Republican Hold to Very Likely Republican Hold: This is my most controversial rating change since I started the Election Watch forecast. Wisconsin’s 8th district is a Trump+15 seat, and normally would not be competitive. But Democrat Kristin Lyerly has raised a lot of money, far more than Republican Tony Wied, who lent himself more than half of the funds he has raised. Now, assuming that Trump wins this district by a similar margin this year, it is very unlikely that Lyerly could out-run Harris’s losing margin by 15 points. But I had to flag the odd fundraising outcome in this race, and until we get a concrete poll out of the district, I have to move it to the very edge of competition (at least for this week).

The Election Watch Presidential Forecast

The Election Watch Gubernatorial Forecast

The Election Watch Senate Forecast

The Election Watch House Forecast

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That’s all for this week! Things are coming down to the wire now for campaigns across the country. Next week, we will cover the final seven states in our election day countdown, and gear up for November 5. Make sure you vote or have a plan to vote, and see you then!

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November 5: 2024 General Election