Election Watch #107: The Primaries Continue in Colorado
Colorado Democrats are bracing themselves for a potential progressive wave of their own, following last week's anti-establishment wins in New York City.
Last week, progressives and Democratic Socialists in New York City unseated two incumbent members of Congress and made their mark on Democratic Party politics in the Empire State. They are now hoping to bring that same mark to Colorado.
The Rocky Mountain State has moved steadily to the left over the last twenty years, and the Democratic primaries for statewide races are now mostly determinative for who will win the general election. Today, one longtime Democratic incumbent is in serious danger of losing to a progressive challenger, and Republicans still see some interesting contests in the Governor’s race and CO-03.
THE COLORADO PRIMARIES
Races to Watch: Governor, U.S. Senate, CO-01, CO-03, CO-08, Attorney General, Secretary of State
GOVERNOR
U.S. Senator Michael Bennet (left) and state Attorney General Phil Weiser (right) (Credit: The Colorado Sun)
Incumbent Governor Jared Polis (D) is term-limited. Democrats have a major primary to replace him between U.S. Senator Michael Bennet and state Attorney General Phil Weiser, two of the best-known Democrats in the state. Bennet, who also ran a brief campaign for President in 2020, was initially viewed as the heavy favorite going into this primary, but his campaign’s spending patterns have indicated that Weiser may actually be pulling close in the closing weeks. Weiser, for his part, has issued campaign signs with the tongue-in-cheek phrase “Weiser for Governor, Bennet for Senate.”
There is also a competitive Republican primary between state senator Barb Kirkmeyer and state representative Scott Bottoms. Kirkmeyer is the more traditional GOP candidate in the field, while Bottoms is running as a much more confrontational conservative. Regardless of who wins the primary, however, the general election is a Safe D Hold.
U.S. Senate
Incumbent U.S. Senator John Hickenlooper (D) faces state senator Julie Gonzales in the Democratic primary. Hickenlooper, a more moderate first-term Senator and former governor who flipped this seat in 2020, has drawn a much more progressive challenger in Gonzales, who is also running on a platform of being more aggressively anti-Trump in the Senate.
State senator Mark Baisley is the only Republican on the primary ballot. Regardless of who emerges as the Democratic nominee, however, the general election is a Safe D Hold.
U.S. HOUSE
CO-01: This Harris+55 seat, based almost exclusively in Denver, is extremely blue, but longtime incumbent Diana DeGette is facing the most serious primary challenge of her career. DeGette has represented Denver since 1997, but is facing two progressive challengers in University of Colorado Regent Wanda James and attorney Melat Kiros. James is the more high-profile candidate, but Kiros has endorsements from prominent left-wing figures and the Democratic Socialists of America. This is yet another test of whether the progressive energy that has hit other deep-blue cities (like New York last week) can also threaten others. Since the district is safely Democratic, the Democratic primary winner will be the Safe afvorite in November.
CO-03: Colorado’s 3rd district, based in the west and south parts of the state, has been competitive in the 2022 and 2024 elections. While it isn’t yet a top target for Democrats this year (it backed Trump 54-44 in 2024), the Republican primary today has been messy. Incumbent Jeff Hurd (R) faces former state representative Ron Hanks, an election conspiracy theorist, in the GOP race. Hurd’s chances are unclear - he initially had President Trump’s endorsement, but Trump withdrew it after Hurd voted against his tariffs in February. Trump re-endorsed Hurd soon after, however, but GOP primary voters could still decide to punish him today. Democrats also have a primary between former state economic development official Dwayne Romero and Alex Kelloff. For now, this seat is rated as a Leans R Hold in November.
CO-05: Colorado’s 5th district, based around Colorado Springs, hasn’t traditionally been competitive, but it has seen a leftward shift in recent years - including shifting towards Kamala Harris in 2024. Trump only won the seat 53-44. Incumbent Jeff Crank (R) is unopposed in the GOP primary, while there is a Democratic primary between Jessica Killin and Joe Reagan. Killin, has emphasized a more moderate, national security profile, while Reagan, a veteran and nonprofit executive, is running on his service-oriented biography. Crank is still favored in the general, but Democrats could make this competitive if this is a really good year for them. Likely R Hold.
CO-08: The 8th district is the top battleground in Colorado this year. The seat, based around Denver’s northern suburbs and exurbs, backed Trump by a narrow 50-48 margin in 2024. Republican incumbent Gabe Evans is unopposed in the GOP primary, while Democrats have a primary that has effectively come down to a race between state representative Manny Rutinel and former state representative Shannon Bird. The race has drawn enormous outside spending, including heavy support for Rutinel from tech and AI-aligned donors. This is a key seat that Democrats must win if they want control of the House this November, and it is currently rated as a 50/50 Toss-Up.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
The office of Colorado Attorney General is open because incumbent Phil Weiser (D) is running for Governor. Four Democrats are running to replace him, including: Secretary of State Jena Griswold, Boulder County District Attorney Michael Dougherty, former federal prosecutor Hetal Doshi, and attorney/nonprofit leader David Seligman. Griswold likely has the most name recognition statewide thanks to her outspoken and nationally-recognized opposition to President Trump. Republicans also have a primary between Michael Allen and David Willson.
SECRETARY OF STATE
The Secretary of State’s office is also open because incumbent Jena Griswold (D) is running for Attorney General. Democrats have a two-way primary between state senator Jessie Danielson and Jefferson County Clerk Amanda Gonzalez. Gonzalez has support from the Democratic left, making this another race where progressive and institutional Democratic coalitions are testing each other. James Wiley is unopposed on the Republican side.
TREASURER
Incumbent Democrat Jeff Bridges is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while former state Senate president Kevin Grantham is unopposed on the Republican side.
STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION
Three State Board of Education seats are on the ballot: Districts 1, 3, and 7.
In District 1, Democrat Lisa Escárcega and Republican Frederick Espinoza are both unopposed in their respective primaries.
In District 3, Democrat Barb Clementi and Republican Sherri Wright are likewise unopposed.
District 7 has the only real primary, on the Republican side. Democrat Karla Esser is unopposed, while Republicans Nick Morris and Steve Barton are running for the GOP nomination.
STATE BOARD OF REGENTS
Three University of Colorado Board of Regents seats are on the ballot: Districts 2, 6, and 7.
In District 2, Democrats Kubs Lalchandani, Edie Hooton, and Murray Smith are running for an open seat, while Marty Neilson is unopposed on the GOP side. Hooton is a former state representative and former University of Colorado regent.
In District 6, Democrat Ilana Spiegel and Republican Veanessa Burbage are both unopposed in their primaries.
And District 7 has a Republican primary between Joan Poston and Paul Mueller, while Democrat Nolbert Chavez is unopposed.
STATE LEGISLATURE
This year, the entire Colorado state House and half of the state Senate are up for election. 21 seats are open, without an incumbent. 173 major party candidates (90 Democrats and 83 Republicans) have filed to run.
In total, Colorado has 23 contested state legislative primaries, 9 of which involve incumbents running for re-election - a record high since before 2010. 6 of the challenged incumbents are Democrats, and 3 are Republicans.
FORECAST CHANGES
Maps of Election Watch’s current forecasts can be found at the links below:
That’s all for Colorado. Today’s primaries are the last ones for the next three weeks, but while we await the resumption of primary season in Arizona on July 21, Election Watch will be issuing major updates for its November forecasts. We’ll see you tomorrow for Colorado’s results, and next week for the first of those updates!
Upcoming Elections
July 21: Primaries in Arizona
July 28: GA-13 Special Election; South Dakota Gubernatorial Primary Runoff